Modeling Age-Specific Mortality for Countries with Generalized HIV Epidemics

David J. Sharrow, University of Washington

Population projections that forecast the future size and age-composition of a country are crucial tools for appropriately planning the future allocation of societal resources. A projection model for countries with generalized HIV epidemics should take into account the future trajectory of the epidemic given the severe effect a generalized epidemic can have on the mortality conditions and composition of a population. We present a model of age-specific mortality as a function of life expectancy, HIV prevalence, and antiretroviral therapy coverage for the 39 countries of the world experiencing a generalized HIV epidemic. We perform an in-sample validation, which shows modest errors for several mortality indicators. Combined with the outputs of existing epidemiological and demographic models, this model makes it possible to estimate future mortality profiles for countries with generalized HIV epidemics.