Comparative APC Models of Middle-Aged Suicide Rates: Testing Cohort Effect Hysteresis

Louis Chauvel, Université de Luxembourg

This paper assesses the stability of cohort effects in suicide rates age-period-cohort comparative analyses. Despite improvements in the APC methodology (Yang and al), two problems remain. The first one is the problem of linear versus fluctuant components of APC effects. No method can disentangle the linear components; anyway, the “detrended” fluctuations can be identified in an APCD model. The second problem relates to the durability of cohort effects over life course that can be either permanent or temporary: an APC-H model is proposed. The suicide rates in sixteen WHO countries (periods 1975-2005 / ages 25-59) show the diversity of cohort dynamics. The models detect contrasted regimes of suicidity: for example, Finland and the US are more cohort-flat but Spain and Australia show deep contrasts between cohort-specific suicide rates. Anyway, these cohort fluctuations are stable over life course in Spain (hysteresis) but clearly declining in New Zealand (resilience).