The Second Demographic Transition in Singapore: Policy Interventions and Ethnic Differentials

Keita Suga, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Japan

This study examines fertility decline in Singapore for 1975-2010 to assess effects of pro-natal policy interventions. Pro-natal policy developments in Singapore are divided into several phases, and we investigate their impacts on period fertility rates during particular phases. To evaluate quantum improvements underlying increases in period fertility rates between before and after a policy implementation, we modify the Bongaarts-Feeney's tempo adjustment method(1998) to decompose the timeseries of fertility rates into quantum- and tempo- components. Results uncover ethnic differentials in fertility evolutions not only in the patterns but also in the determinants.