Robust Backward Population Projections Made Possible: An Implication from the Theory of Demographic Potential

Dalkhat M. Ediev, Vienna Institute of Demography

Based on formal results for population dynamics under varying fertility and mortality levels, this paper presents a new approach to backward population projection. Unlike other methods in the literature, the method presented here is robust and accurate in both the short and long run. The method and the theory behind it contribute to the knowledge about dynamic populations and may find applications in population modeling and reconstruction. Details of the backward projection method have been published recently in the Int J Forecasting but has not yet been well presented to the demographic audience. Here, I present those results as well as the underlying theory of dynamically stable populations.