The Great Recession and the Nonmarital Fertility Ratio

Christina M. Gibson-Davis, Duke University

This study examines how the nonmarital fertility ratio, which is the proportion of children born out-of-wedlock, changed in response to the Great Recession. Using decomposition analysis, this study examines how changes in the three main determinants of the NMFR – the marital fertility rate, the non-marital fertility rate, and the proportion married – contributed to the increase in the NMFR between 2007 and 2009. For all women, the rise in the NMFR can be attributed to a decline in the proportion of women who were married. Hispanics also showed a relatively large decline in the non-marital fertility rate. For Blacks, declines in the proportion married were concentrated among women living in states with high unemployment; Blacks living in states with low unemployment had relatively little change in proportion married. Results are suggestive that for most women, economic contractions have a larger effect on marriage than on fertility behavior.