Heterogeneity Identified at Birth and Hypertension Risk at Adulthood

Furrina F. Lee, University at Albany, State University of New York (SUNY)
Erin O'Neill, University at Albany, State University of New York (SUNY)
A. DiRienzo, University at Albany, State University of New York (SUNY)
Timothy B. Gage, University at Albany, State University of New York (SUNY)

Birth weight is often used as an indicator of fetal programming and a risk factor of chronic disease later in life. This paper examined the association of birth weight with blood pressure at age 46 by applying Covariate Density Defined mixture of regressions (CDDmr) to the 1958 National Child Development Study. CDDmr identifies two latent subpopulations, interpreted as undergoing “normal” and “compromised” fetal development. Compared to “normal” births, the mean systolic blood pressure of “compromised” births is 20 and 28 mmHg higher among females and males, respectively. The relative risk of stage-I systolic hypertension (>140 mmHg) between the “compromised” and the “normal” subpopulation is 6.9 and 3.4 by sex. The relative risk of stage-II systolic hypertension (>160 mmHg) is even higher, 70.6 and 35.0 by sex. Results for diastolic blood pressure are similar. CDDmr is likely to be useful for studying fetal programming as a complex phenotype.