Place of Birth and Population Process in Population Projections for the State of California

John Pitkin, Analysis and Forecasting, Inc.
Dowell Myers, University of Southern California

This paper examines the relationship between place of birth (foreign, California, or other state) and three population processes, immigration, domestic migration, and fertility, in the context of the latest iteration of the California Demographic Futures projections of the population of California to 2040. Large differences in rates of migration and child-bearing among birthplace groups coupled with strong time trends in the birthplace composition of the population suggest gains in forecast accuracy over models that do not segment the population by birthplace. The CDF projections will be compared with the projections recently issued by the State of California and differences that can be attributed to effects of birthplace will be identified. The benefits of adding birthplace detail to conventional population projections for states are discussed.