A Comparison of UN and IHME Maternal Mortality Estimates

Noli Brazil, University of California, Berkeley
John R. Wilmoth, United Nations Population Division

We will analyze differences in maternal mortality estimates published by the UN and the IHME since 2010. First, we will break down differences into components attributable to three aspects of the estimation process: (1) models for predicting the proportion maternal among deaths to women aged 15-49; (2) levels of all-cause adult female mortality; and (3) choices in the treatment of AIDS-related maternal deaths. We will decompose differences in estimates for each country, region, and the world into these three parts to identify the relative importance of each factor. Second, we will explore and compare the performance of statistical models used by the UN and the IHME for predicting the proportion of maternal deaths. After fitting both models to the UN dataset, we will document differences in goodness-of-fit and predictive accuracy. We will also explore the practical and theoretical tradeoffs between estimation procedures that rely on simple versus complex models.