Employment Shifts among Low-Skill Workers during the Recession

Mariano Sana, Vanderbilt University
Blake Sisk, Vanderbilt University

We analyze labor force participation and employment rates for Whites, Blacks, and immigrants from Mexico and Central America (MXCAs) without a high school diploma. We use CPS-MORG data from the first quarter of 2006 to the fourth quarter of 2010, so that we can see trends before, during and immediately after the recession. Among males, employment rates during the recession fell for all groups, but they fell deeper and faster among Blacks, who were also the last to begin to recover after the recession. Among low-skill women, the most apparent response to the recession was an increase in the LFPR of MXCAs. We offer four hypotheses for why low-skill Black males fared much worse than low-skill MXCA males in terms of employment rates during the recession. Of these, the most plausible appears to be that employer preferences for immigrant over Black workers became more pronounced during the recession.