The Kenyan HIV Epidemic: 2003-2010

Sanyu A. Mojola, University of Colorado at Boulder
Danielle Denardo, University of Colorado at Boulder

Interesting shifts have occurred in the Kenyan HIV epidemic over the past decade. Specifically, there has been an upward shift in peak prevalence among women, from those aged 25-29 in 2003 to those aged 40-44, and a concomitant downward shift in peak prevalence among men from those aged 40-44 in 2003, to those aged 35-39 in 2009 (KDHS 2010). This paper investigates these two phenomena using data from KDHS 2003 and KDHS 2009. We find that despite dramatic increases in levels of accurate HIV knowledge and awareness among men and women, sexual behavior within marriage remained a major risk factor. In particular, involvement in polygamous marital arrangements, which increased four-fold among men over this time period may have driven the rise among men in their late 30s as well as women aged 40-44. These findings suggest the need to focus more HIV prevention interventions on married men and women.