Demographic Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for Demographic Dividend

Yoonjoung Choi, U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)

The study purpose is to understand projected changes in the population age structure, a critical condition for realizing demographic dividend, through 2100 in sub-Saharan Africa. Specific aims are: to estimate windows for advance investment and windows for benefiting from the economically favorable age structure, to compare the patterns of age structure changes to those in other less-developed regions, and to assess sensitivity of results across different assumptions in fertility decline projection, using the World Population Prospects, 2010 Revision data. Three patterns emerged: a pattern close to that in other less-developed regions, another pattern suggesting much slower demographic transition in majority countries, and a final pattern where fertility decline is too slow to have substantial impact on the age structure. Even in the second pattern, the absolute population size increase may challenge realizing demographic dividend. Finally, about a half-child differences in TFR projection assumptions indicated significant variation in age structure changes.