Internal Migration and the Great Recession in America: A Test of the Push-Pull Theory

Brian L. Levy, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Ted Mouw, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Anthony D. Perez, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

This paper examines causes and consequences of internal migration during the Great Recession through the lens of push-pull migration theory. We identify the leading demographic and socioeconomic correlates of migration, track how they evolved before, during, and after this period of rapid economic turnover, and explore how migratory flows reconfigure the race/ethnic composition and occupational distribution of receiving destinations. Our research integrates the geographic detail of American Community Survey data to measure annual migration flows at the sub-state level and the Survey of Income and Program Participation to analyze multiple moves and industry switches. We hypothesize that economic pull factors will be more important during the recession, industry and occupation switches will be more common, and racial and ethnic minorities will be more likely to migrate.