Labor Force Projections for Europe by Age, Sex, and Highest Level of Educational Attainment, 2008 to 2053

Elke Loichinger, Wittgenstein Centre (IIASA, VID/ÖAW, WU)

One aspect of the expected negative economic consequences of population aging in Europe is grounded on the anticipated shrinkage of the labor force. Compared to existing labor force projections, the projections in this study include information about the highest level of educational attainment, which means another level of heterogeneity in labor force participation besides age and sex is considered. This heterogeneity is relevant in two ways: (1) it enters the projection methodology since the fundamental parameters (population and labor force participation) are decomposed in three instead of two dimensions, and (2) it adds a further dimension of information about the future composition of the labor force. Using data from the European Labor Force Survey, I project the economically active population for 26 EU-countries up to 2053. The results show that the European labor force is projected to be composed of people that are significantly higher educated than today.