The Decline in Non-Numeric Desired Family Size: A Cross-Regional Analysis

Lauren Bachan, Pennsylvania State University
Margaret Frye, University of California, Berkeley

This paper examines changes over time in the proportion of women's non-numeric responses to questions about desired family size. Such responses have often been interpreted through the lens of classical demographic transition theory, as an indication that reproduction has not yet entered into the "calculus of conscious choice" (Coale 1973:65). Yet non-numeric desired family size has rarely been investigated in a cross-national framework, and never across time. Thus we know little about the processes underlying changes in these responses. This study uses over 15 years of DHS data from 36 countries representing three world regions. Taking a multi-level modeling approach, we use country- and individual-level factors to examine changes in the proportion of non-numeric desired family size. Preliminary results from county-level fixed effects pooled time series models suggest that increasing education and knowledge of family planning methods contributed to the world-wide decline in women's non-numeric desired family size.