Evaluation of the U.S. Census Bureau's County-Level Postcensal Population Estimates by Demographic Characteristics

Ben Bolender, U.S. Census Bureau
Tiffany Yowell, U.S. Census Bureau
Irene Dokko, U.S. Census Bureau

This project presents results from a comparison of the U.S. Census Bureau’s official postcensal county population estimates series with 2010 Census counts by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin. The population estimates were developed using a cohort component approach that utilized modified Census 2000 counts as a base and updated the base with components of population change. We expand on the work already presented on estimates evaluation by assessing the differences between the population estimates and the 2010 Census by broad categories of age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin. Using a variety of measures (including the mean absolute percent error and the mean algebraic percent error) and cross-classifications, we demonstrate that the differences from Census are more in line with known problems in estimating small populations than any systematic bias across population estimates of characteristic groupings.