Progression to Female Sterilization or to the Next Parity in India: Results of a Competing Risk Model

Aparna Jain, Johns Hopkins University

Large proportions of older Indian women at higher parities selected sterilization in the 1970s and 1980s. In the early 1990s, when the TFR was 3.9, the average number of children born to a sterilized woman was 4.0 down from 6 births in the 1960s when the TFR was 5.9. Rates of sterilization rose and are now common among younger women of lower parities. Sterilization use continues to significantly contribute to the fertility transition. This study focuses on the timing of sterilization. We explore the relationship between marital fertility and female sterilization by modeling the competing risks of progression to parity x+1 and female sterilization among women at parity x born from 1945 to 1985. We use the birth history data of the National Family and Health Surveys, and examine patterns of female sterilization and parity progression risks by birth cohort, urban-rural residence and residential region.