India’s Progress towards the Millennium Development Goals 4 and 5 on Infant and Maternal Mortality

Hanimi Reddy Modugu, IntraHealth International, Inc.
Manas Pradhan, Public Health Foundation of India (PHFI)
Rohini Ghosh, Independent Consultant

India is in a race to reduce Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) to ‘28’ and Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) to ‘109’, by 2015. Using a DE-composition technique, using latest data, we estimated percent net-contribution of 15 populous-states and different-periods, in shaping India’s IMR/MMR. By fitting linear and exponential regression-curves, predicted future IMRs/MMRs. Due to favorable MMR reduction efforts from Uttar Pradesh (33%), Bihar/Jharkhand (19%) and Madhya Pradesh/Chhattisgarh (11%) – India’s MMR dropped from 398-212, during 1997-2009. India’s MMR would be ‘109’ by 2016, if decline follows linear-trend. By 2023-24, if decline follows an exponential-trend. Attaining ‘28’ IMR may take, at least, until 2023-24, due to low acceleration in IMR drop in Bihar/Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh/Uttarakhand and Rajasthan – during 1990-2010. Although, India as a nation is not predicted to attain MDGs-4&5, four of its states are predicted to do so. During 1990-2010, MMR reduction efforts were more effective than IMR reduction efforts.