What Explains the Decline in Migration?

Diane Charlton, University of California, Davis
Antonio Yúnez-Naude, El Colegio de México
Ed Taylor, University of California, Davis
Michael Castelhano, University of California, Davis

There has been a decrease in migration from Mexico to the U.S. in recent years, but there is a current lack of research to identify the cause. Reports suggest improved educational and economic opportunities in Mexico, decreased birth rates, increased crime along the border, higher border enforcement, U.S. immigration policy, and a decline in the U.S. economy may have contributed. Although economic theory suggests that all of these elements are important in determining whether or not an individual chooses to migrate, each will have different impacts on migration in the long-run. Diminished push factors on the Mexican side of the border indicate that the decline in immigration is permanent. In contrast, pull factors in the U.S. may reverse when the economy improves. We use nationally representative household data from rural Mexico and U.S. economic and policy data to examine which factors determine migration rates and to help predict future migration.