Spatial Variations in Determinants of Fertility Reversal after 2005 in Japan: Geographically Weighted Regression for Small Area Estimates of TFR

Kenji Kamata, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Japan
Miho Iwasawa, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Japan

To understand the determinants of raising fertility rates after 2005 in Japan, we investigate the spatial variations of the relationship between changes in Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and their covariates using geographically weighted regression models. Our sample is 1,853 towns and villages based on 2010 administrative boundaries. Change in TFR of small area between 2005 and 2010, which is adjusted by the child-woman ratio, is used as a dependent variable. As for the explanatory factors, we focus on female labor force participation, child-care availability, economic conditions, and difference between 2005 and 2010 of these variables are introduced in the models. All coefficients for covariates on change in total fertility rates have statistically significant geographical variations. The regional fertility rates rose markedly in the urban areas, where the increase in the female labor force participants shows positive relationship with TFR change.