Subnational Projections Toolkit

Lisa R. Lollock, U.S. Census Bureau

Censuses, demographic surveys, and administrative records now provide a wealth of information from which to better understand population dynamics and provide decision-makers with information useful in planning social programs at the subnational level. In order to harness the unprecedented opportunities presented in these data, demographers rely on software that can capture the complexities within subnational populations while retaining consistency between them and national-level figures. The U.S. Census Bureau’s Subnational Projections Toolkit is designed to meet these objectives. The Toolkit consists of several Excel workbooks, which adjust subnational projections and components to separately generated national projections. What follows is an illustration of the Toolkit, applied in developing estimates and projections of the ten states in South Sudan. This application to South Sudan’s data shows that the software adjusts subnational area projections to be consistent with national-level figures while continuing to reflect assumed area-specific differentials.