The Effect Mechanism of Population Urbanization and Carbon Emissions in China: Based on the Co-Integration Test of Stirpat Model

Congrong Yao, Nankai University

Climate change and population urbanization have become dual challenges for human in the 21 century, especially for most of developing countries. As a result of urbanization and industrialization, carbon emissions per capita have been increased rapidly, which lead to obviously heat island effect and regional climate change. Based on the Kaya equation and STIRPAT model, this paper uses the co-integration test to examine the long-term impacts of population urbanization factors on carbon emissions in China. Results show that GDP per capita and carbon intensity, population size, urbanization level, and economic structure are important driving factors of carbon emissions from 1978 to 2008.Wherein, the most obviously influence factors are GDP per capita and carbon intensity, followed by population size and urbanization level, and industrial structure changing on carbon emissions effects are reversed in direction.