Political Marginalization and Fertility: A Case Comparison of Arizona and New Mexico

Joanne Rodrigues, University of California, Berkeley

How does political marginalization affect women's fertility decisions? New Mexico and Arizona have divergent political cultures and levels of political incorporation for Hispanics. This article explores the effect of political marginalization on aggregate fertility patterns for Hispanic women in New Mexico and Arizona. Using the Census American Community Survey from 2005 to 2010 and New Mexico and Arizona Vital Statistics, this article uses two separate approaches to explore political fertility. The first is a county level analysis of differences in fertility and the second is a ‘natural experiment’ using the border between Arizona and New Mexico. This paper will show that political marginalization both on a county and state level significantly increases fertility when holding all other factors constant. Politics can influence demographic change. Political incorporation should be considered when examining fertility differences between subgroups.