A Method for Estimating the Age-Specific Mortality Pattern in Limited Populations of Small Areas

Anastasia Kostaki, Athens University of Economics and Business
Byron Kotzamanis, University of Thessaly

Serious problems related to the efficiency and stability of the empirical age-specific death rates arise when data refer to limited population of small areas, where the age-specific death counts as related to few events, low. In such a case the age-specific death rates are inefficient estimators of the corresponding death probabilities as a result of highest impact of randomness. However, for many purposes in both demographic analysis and actuarial practice, there is a need for reliable and analytical estimation of the age-specific mortality pattern. In this work these problems are discussed, and a technique for providing accurate and analytical estimates of the age-specific counts and rates of limited populations in small areas is proposed. The same methodology after adjustment proves appropriate for the estimation of the age-specific fertility and nuptiality rates too. For evaluation purposes this technique is applied to empirical small area data of USA, Sweden, and Greece.