Social Transitions and Changes in Determinants of Marriage Formation -- a Quantitative Study of Chinese Urbanites

Jia Yu, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

Using national data from the 2003 and 2008 Chinese General Social Surveys, we examine the effects of demographic and institutional determinants of individual marriage in urban China spanning 60 years. We observed a growth in importance of economic prospect during the period of rapid economic development. In addition, the positive effect of working in the state-owned sector on marriage formation declined, reflecting marketization in China during recent decades. Combining the survey with city-level yearly measures of housing prices, we further find that the effects of education on marriage entry depended on local housing price. Specifically, higher education is associated with larger probability of entering marriage when the housing prices are relatively high; in contrast, education has a marriage-delaying effect in the cities with relatively low housing prices. Taken together, these results suggest the importance of considering the determinants of marriage within a broader changing social context.