Reconsidering Black (and White) Migration to the South: A Model and Measure of the Temporal Dynamics of Migration Flows

Jack DeWaard, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Glenn V. Fuguitt, University of Wisconsin-Madison

Using an extension of increment-decrement, multiregional life tables, we derive county-level estimates of both black and white migrants’ expected time of residence in southern U.S. counties each decade over the 1970-2000 period. Descriptive work has shown that negative net-migration in the South reversed course going into the 1970s, leading to a “Great Return Migration” in subsequent decades. However, to date, no formal demographic studies have examined exactly how long these migrants ultimately remained in the South. This oversight is consequential since the mechanisms by which migration may have shaped social and economic life in the South, e.g., selection, depend not merely on the size of migration flows, but also on their temporal stability, a key structural factor in theories of social disorganization. This research thus offers a new and innovative vantage point for reconsidering what is arguably one of the most important demographic shifts in recent U.S. history.