The Decline in Marriage in Israel, 1960-2007: Period or Cohort Effect?

Jona Schellekens, Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Moshe Ophir, Bar-Ilan University
David Gliksberg, Hebrew University of Jerusalem

Two economic and one ideational explanation dominate the current debate over the decline in marriage. It has been difficult to test the hypothesis that the decline is the result of attitudinal change. The ideational hypothesis, however, predicts that the decline in marriage partly is a cohort effect. Thus, the ideational hypothesis can be falsified by the absence of cohort influences in the decline. Three major findings emerge from our analysis of the Israeli censuses of 1972, 1983, 1995 and 2008. First, until 1990-94 the decline in marriage was a period effect. Second, after 1990-94, the decline was a cohort effect, as predicted by the hypothesis that the decline is the result of attitudinal change. Third, we replicate the results of previous research which has shown that the decline in marriage is not the result of an increase in female education, as predicted by the economic independence hypothesis.