The Demographic Determinants of Conflict

Neil G. Bennett, CUNY Institute for Demographic Research (CIDR)
Bochen Cao, University of Pennsylvania

Armed conflict has long been a subject of inquiry among policy makers and scholars. In contrast to the sizeable literature that explores the demographic consequences of conflict, the corresponding number of studies of the demographic determinants of conflict is relatively paltry. The proposed research aims to fill gaps in this literature. We employ logistic regression models and generalized additive models, applied not only to demographic data, but to social, political, and environmental data, as well, to determine the most salient of conflict determinants and, ultimately, to identify “hot spots” around the world. That is, we seek to identify which countries are at relatively high risk of experiencing armed conflict at some time in the next several years. The hope is that, upon identification, other nations may be in a position to provide positive interventions that would cool down these areas and reduce the likelihood of conflict.