The Effect of Agricultural and Urban Opportunities on the Migration and Social Mobility of American Men, 1870-1880

Benjamin Jarvis, University of California, Los Angeles

This paper models the joint determination of occupational and geographic outcomes in the 19th century United States. In particular, it examines whether agricultural opportunities were a force in drawing both farmers and non-farmers to frontier or near frontier areas of the United States at the close of the 19th century. It also asks whether both farmers and non-farmers were able to leverage agricultural opportunities in frontier areas into farm outcomes. The paper employs IPUMS data based on linked United States Census manuscript records. These data are analogous to longitudinal data, with individuals’ geographic locations and occupational outcomes ascertained in 1870 and 1880. Joint geographic and social mobility of working age men is modeled using discrete choice methods to reveal how state-level urban and agricultural opportunities shaped interstate migration patterns and the movement of population onto and off of farms.