Who Dies during Economic Downturns? Disaggregating the Impact of Economic Fluctuations on Mortality in Finland for the Period 1989-2007

Mauricio Avendano, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Harvard School of Public Health
Heta Moustgaard, University of Helsinki

Studies suggest that economic recessions lead to mortality reductions, but aggregate associations might mask heterogeneous effects. We assess whether economic downturns have different effects according to employment and socioeconomic status, based on a rich dataset linking individuals in administrative registries in Finland. Overall, increased regional unemployment reduces male morality from traffic accidents but not from other causes, while it increases overall and cancer female mortality. Aggregate associations, however, mask heterogeneous effects. Among employed men, increased unemployment reduces mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD) and traffic accidents and increases suicide mortality, while it increases CVD mortality in men who become unemployed. Higher educated men are particularly vulnerable to increased mortality during downturns. Increased unemployment reduces suicide mortality in women out of the labour force, but it increases mortality from traffic accidents in women changing employment status. Results suggest that there is substantial heterogeneity in the impact of economic downturns on mortality.