Who Gets Held Back? An Analysis of Grade Retention Using Stratified Frailty Models

Victoria Locke, Pearson Education and University of Texas at San Antonio
P. Johnelle Sparks, University of Texas at San Antonio

Racial/ethnic disparities in grade retention are investigated using a quantitative theoretical model from the health and mortality literature. Data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten Cohort are linked with segregation indices for dissimilarity and poverty interaction derived from US Census 2000 data to estimate the impact of individual and structural level variables on grade retention. Shared frailty models demonstrate that while blacks are the most likely to be retained in grade, there are racial/ethnic differences in risk factors for grade retention. White students are more likely to be held back if they are young, male, and poor, and they are less likely to be held back if they live in an area with high white/non-white dissimilarity. Black students are more likely to be retained if they are male and have an inexperienced teacher in kindergarten, while Hispanic children are more likely to be retained if they live in poverty.