The Impact of Current Demographic Trends on Childhood Infectious Diseases

Alessia Melegaro, Università Bocconi
Piero Poletti, Università Bocconi
Stefano Merler, Fondazione Bruno Kessler
Marco Ajelli, Fondazione Bruno Kessler
Piero Manfredi, Università di Pisa

European populations are currently undergoing a number of transformations ranging from generalized spread of low fertility, “postponement” of life events, and increasing immigration, even as a policy to counter population ageing. Even more massive transformations are occurring in the developing world as a consequence of ongoing fertility transition and fast urbanization. We discuss the relation between population change and changes in the socio-demographic structures and their possible impact on the dynamics and control of childhood infections. We investigate through the analysis of DHS-datasets for Kenya and Zimbabwe what are the critical changing patterns related to households’ formation and how ongoing demographic transitions affect these processes. The derived statistics will allow us to parameterize a dynamic individual-based model capable of reproducing the baseline demographic features of the two countries over time and to model the dynamics of individual contact patterns in different epidemiologically relevant “arenas” (e.g. households).