Is Climate Change-Induced Migration a Scarecrow? A Conceptual and Empirical Analysis

Cristina Bradatan, Texas Tech University
Katherine Hayhoe, Texas Tech University

In this paper, we analyze the effects of climate changes on migration in a specific case study. In the first part, we conduct a conceptual analysis by integrating demographic/social sciences models of migration with models and information derived from climate sciences. In the second part, we conduct an empirically driven analysis on the case of Senegal. A developing country, Senegal is expected to experience sea level increase, changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate changes. To estimate the changes in temperature and precipitation we use Climate Wizard at 0.5 degrees with all available models and the three scenarios downscaled at the country level. For sea level increases, we use Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009) global estimates for upper/lower limits combined with an estimate of local subsidence for Senegal. In order to estimate a migration model, we use World Bank survey on migration and remittances in Senegal (2009).

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Presented in Poster Session 3